Identification of social and racial disparities in risk of HIV infection in Florida using causal AI methods

Florida –the 3rd most populous state in the USA–has the highest rates of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) infections and of unfavorable HIV outcomes, with marked social and racial disparities. In this work, we leveraged large-scale, real-world data, i.e., statewide surveillance records and publicly available data resources encoding social determinants of health (SDoH), to identify social and racial disparities contributing to individuals’ risk of HIV infection. We used the Florida Department of Health’s Syndromic Tracking and Reporting System (STARS) database (including 100,000+ individuals screened for HIV infection and their partners), and a novel algorithmic fairness assessment method –the Fairness-Aware Causal paThs decompoSition (FACTS)– merging causal inference and artificial intelligence. FACTS deconstructs disparities based on SDoH and individuals’ characteristics, and can discover novel mechanisms of inequity, quantifying to what extent they could be reduced by interventions. We paired the deidentified demographic information (age, gender, drug use) of 44,350 individuals in STARS –with non-missing data on interview year, county of residence, and infection status– to eight SDoH, including access to healthcare facilities, % uninsured, median household income, and violent crime rate. Using an expert-reviewed causal graph, we found that the risk of HIV infection for African Americans was higher than for non- African Americans (both in terms of direct and total effect), although a null effect could not be ruled out. FACTS identified several paths leading to racial disparity in HIV risk, including multiple SDoH: education, income, violent crime, drinking, smoking, and rurality. (author abstract) #HES4A